Literature discussions

Authors: Carlos M. Duarte, Susana Agustí, Paul Wassmann, Jesús M. Arrieta, Miquel Alcaraz, Alexandra Coello, Nuria Marbà, Iris E. Hendriks, Johnna Holding, Iñigo García‐Zarandona, Emma Kritzberg, Dolors Vaqué. Abstract: The Arctic marine ecosystem contains multiple elements that present alternative states. The most obvious of which is an Arctic Ocean largely covered by an ice sheet in summer versus one largely devoid of such cover. Ecosystems under pressure typically shift between such alternative states in an abrupt, rather than smooth manner, with the level of forcing required for shifting this status termed threshold or tipping point. Loss of Arctic ice due to anthropogenic climate change is accelerating, with the extent of Arctic sea ice displaying increased variance at present, a leading indicator of the proximity of a possible tipping point. Reduced ice extent is expected, in turn, to trigger a number of additional tipping elements, physical, chemical, and biological, in motion, with potentially large impacts on the Arctic marine ecosystem. How to cite: Carlos M. Duarte, Susana Agustí, Paul Wassmann, Jesús M. Arrieta, Miquel Alcaraz, Alexandra Coello, Nuria Marbà, Iris E. Hendriks, Johnna Holding, Iñigo García‐Zarandona, Emma Kritzberg, Dolors Vaqué. 2012. Tipping Elements in the Arctic Marine Ecosystem. Ambio. DOI: 10.1007/s13280‐011‐0224‐7. Link to the article: http://www.springerlink.com/content/p3h4277v8632871w/

Abstract The McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica harbor numerous permanently ice-covered lakes, which provide a year-round oasis for microbial life. Microbial eukaryotes in these lakes occupy a variety of trophic levels within the simple aquatic food web ranging from primary producers to tertiary predators. Here, we report the first molecular study to describe the vertical distribution of the eukaryotic community residing in the photic zone of the east lobe (ELB) and west lobe (WLB) of the chemically stratified Lake Bonney. The 18S ribosomal RNA (rRNA) libraries revealed vertically stratified populations dominated by photosynthetic protists, with a cryptophyte dominating shallow populations (ELB–6 m; WLB–10 m), a haptophyte occupying mid-depths (both lobes 13 m) and chlorophytes residing in the deepest layers (ELB–18 and 20 m; WLB–15 and 20 m) of the photic zone. A previously undetected stramenopile occurred throughout the water column of both lobes. Temporal variation in the eukaryotic populations was examined during the transition from Antarctic summer (24-h sunlight) to polar night (complete dark). Protist diversity was similar between the two lobes of Lake Bonney due to exchange between the photic zones of the two basins via a narrow bedrock sill. However, vertical and temporal variation in protist distribution occurred, indicating the influence of the unique water chemistry on the biology of the two dry valley watersheds. link to abstract/article on the ISME Journal website

Is the polar bear doomed to extinction? Maybe not, according to models of the future extent of Arctic sea ice if greenhouse-gas emissions are curbed. The outlook depends on the ability of policy-makers to act.

On the basis of projected losses of their essential sea-ice habitats, a United States Geological Survey research team concluded in 2007 that two-thirds of the world’s polar bears (Ursus maritimus) could disappear by mid-century if business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions continue. That projection, however, did not consider the possible benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. A key question is whether temperature increases lead to proportional losses of sea-ice habitat, or whether sea-ice cover crosses a tipping point and irreversibly collapses when temperature reaches a critical threshold. Such a tipping point would mean future greenhouse gas mitigation would confer no conservation benefits to polar bears. Here we show, using a general circulation model, that substantially more sea-ice habitat would be retained if greenhouse gas rise is mitigated. We also show, with Bayesian network model outcomes, that increased habitat retention under greenhouse gas mitigation means that polar bears could persist throughout the century in greater numbers and more areas than in the business-as-usual case3. Our general circulation model outcomes did not reveal thresholds leading to irreversible loss of ice; instead, a linear relationship between global mean surface air temperature and sea-ice habitat substantiated the hypothesis that sea-ice thermodynamics can overcome albedo feedbacks proposed to cause sea-ice tipping points. Our outcomes indicate that rapid summer ice losses in models and observations represent increased volatility of a thinning sea-ice cover, rather than tipping-point behaviour. Mitigation-driven Bayesian network outcomes show that previously predicted declines in polar bear distribution and numbers are not unavoidable. Because polar bears are sentinels of the Arctic marine ecosystem and trends in their sea-ice habitats foreshadow future global changes, mitigating greenhouse gas emissions to improve polar bear status would have conservation benefits throughout and beyond the Arctic.

Abstract. This study provides insights into surface mass-balance (SMB) and runoff exiting the Watson River drainage basin, Kangerlussuaq, West Greenland during a 30 year period (1978/1979–2007/2008) when the climate experienced increasing temperatures and precipitation. The 30-year simulations quantify the terrestrial freshwater output from part of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) and the land between the GrIS and the ocean, in the context of global warming and increasing GrIS surface melt. We used a snow-evolution modeling system (SnowModel) to simulate the winter accumulation and summer ablation processes, including runoff and SMB, of the ice sheet: indicating that the simulated equilibrium line altitude (ELA) was in accordance with independent observations. To a large extent, the SMB fluctuations could be explained by changes in net precipitation (precipitation minus evaporation and sublimation), with 8 out of 30 years having negative SMB, mainly because of relatively low annual net precipitation. The overall trend in net precipitation and runoff increased significantly, while SMB increased insignificantly throughout the simulation period, leading to enhanced precipitation of 0.59 km3 w.eq. (or ~60%), runoff of 0.43 km3 w.eq. (or ~55%), and SMB of 0.16 km3 w.eq. (or ~85%). Runoff rose on average from 0.80 km3 w.eq. in 1978/1979 to 1.23 km3 w.eq. in 2007/2008. The GrIS satellite-derived melt-extent increased significantly, and the melting intensification occurred simultaneously with the increase in local Kangerlussuaq runoff, indicating that satellite data can be used as a proxy (r2=0.64) for runoff from the Kangerlussuaq drainage area.

Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) is a key water mass in the Meridional Overturning Circulation, filling much of the abyssal layers of the world ocean. The Weddell Sea is the predominant site for AABW formation, and the source for the AABW that occupies the densest layers of the Atlantic Ocean. Several studies have shown a decadal warming of the AABW layer in the Atlantic, superimposed on significant interannual variability. Recent studies suggest that interannual variability of the AABW in the Scotia Sea may be linked to changes in the baroclinicity of the Weddell Gyre, with the vertical changes in the density structure at the northern edge of the Weddell Sea acting to control the export of AABW across the rough topography of the South Scotia Ridge and toward the Atlantic. Under the assumption that the cyclonicity of atmospheric forcing drives the baroclinicity of the gyre, we test this hypothesis by analysing the properties of AABW during 15 occupations of the SR1b hydrographic section (1993-2009) in the eastern Drake Passage, just downstream of the Weddell Sea in the AABW circulation, and reanalysis atmospheric forcing data. The time series of thermohaline properties constructed from the data show significant interannual variability (0.05ºC/0.005 in potential temperature/salinity). Positive correlations between the property time series and the zonal wind stress over the northern rim of the Weddell Sea are found at approximately five months lag. Our results suggest that the wind stress influences the variability of AABW properties downstream of the Weddell Sea by contracting/relaxing isopycnals through baroclinic adjustment, thus leading to warmer/cooler AABW being exported in the Scotia Sea/Drake Passage region, from where it can penetrate into the Atlantic

While summer Arctic sea-ice extent has decreased over the past three decades, it is subject to large interannual and regional variations. Methodological challenges in measuring ice thickness continue to hamper our understanding of the response of the ice-thickness distribution to recent change, limiting the ability to forecast sea-ice change over the next decade. We present results from a 2400 km long pan-Arctic airborne electromagnetic (EM) ice thickness survey in April 2009, the first-ever large-scale EM thickness dataset obtained by fixed-wing aircraft over key regions of old ice in the Arctic Ocean between Svalbard and Alaska. The data provide detailed insight into ice thickness distributions characteristic for the different regions. Comparison with previous EM surveys shows that modal thicknesses of old ice had changed little since 2007, and remained within the expected range of natural variability.

Pelagic seabird populations can use several discrete wintering areas, but it is unknown if individuals use the same wintering area year after year. This would have consequences for their population genetic structure and conservation. We here study the faithfulness of individuals to a moulting area within and among years in a small pelagic seabird, the Thin-billed prion, which moult their primary feathers during the early part of the non-breeding period. According to stable carbon isotope ratios (δ13C) of these feathers, 90% of Thin-billed prions moult in Antarctic and 10% in South American waters. Repeated samples from individuals in 2 or 3 years indicated that several birds changed between Antarctic and South American moulting areas or vice versa. However, individuals moulting in an area in one year were more likely to do so again. Four out of five adults maintained highly conserved δ13C over the extended moulting period. One bird, however, had systematic changes in δ13C indicating latitudinal movements between the two areas during moult. Thus, the present data show that this seabird species has a highly flexible migratory strategy, not only at the population level, but also at the individual level, enabling these seabirds to exploit a highly unpredictable environment.

Abstract: The services of ecological systems and the natural capital stocks that produce them are critical to the functioning of the Earth's life-support system. They contribute to human welfare, both directly and indirectly, and therefore represent part of the total economic value of the planet. We have estimated the current economic value of 17 ecosystem services for 16 biomes, based on published studies and a few original calculations. For the entire biosphere, the value (most of which is outside the market) is estimated to be in the range of US$16-54 trillion (1012) per year, with an average of US$33 trillion per year. Because of the nature of the uncertainties, this must be considered a minimum estimate. Global gross national product total is around US$18 trillion per year.