APECS-APPLICATE-YOPP Online Course 2019

The case studies focus on extreme events of Arctic weather and climate on different time scales, and their impact on a specific aspect of society or daily life in the Arctic and beyond. Severe Weather Europe has a good collection and documentation of unusual weather events in Europe. Visit the APPLICATE website for examples of case studies done by the project so far. 

• Renewable energy

  Renewable energy comes from natural sources such as sunlight, wind, rain, etc. that offer environmental, economic and energy-security benefits. On overview of renewable energy resources in the Arctic can be found in the Arctic Renewable Energy Atlas. However, natural sources also bring challenges, since they are strongly affected by weather and climate variability, which cause wide variations in both energy supply and demand. Forecasting this variability at different timescales is crucial for efficient energy management. For instance, a growing number of windparks is operating or planned (e.g., offshore and along the coast of Norway).
  Some challenges for renewable energy production in the Arctic are:
  Case study E1 - Renewable energy production in the Arctic: Periods of too low or too high wind speed that may hinder energy production to meet demands. Therefore, it is important to investigate when, where and for how long may these conditions occur?
  Case study E2 - Icing on wind parks: Cold temperatures and high wind speeds than can lead to ice accumulations on the blades of wind turbines (icing). Such icing may require increased maintenance, may cause severe damage to the windmills, resulting in less reliable energy production in winter. What weather parameters are crucial for such icing, and how can they be forecasted?

• Health in the Arctic

  In an increasingly warming Arctic, weather and climate phenomena that typically characterise southern locations, tend to advance northwards. That is the case of heatwaves, which are becoming more frequent and intense in polar regions, also favouring the occurrence of wildfires in areas where they haven’t been common in the past.
  Some challenges for health in the Arctic are:
  Case study H1 - Heatwaves & fires: During a heatwave in July 2018, 11 fires occurred above the Arctic Circle and caused air pollution and severe threats to local infrastructure. For large parts of northern Europe, increased risk of wildfires was predicted for summer 2018. Can Arctic heatwaves be anticipated using climate predictions? And would it be possible to predict the risk of fires associated to heatwaves, i.e., to send an early warning to civil services? How can the risk of forest fires be mitigated in the long-term future?
  Case study H2 - Human health and comfort: Elevated temperature and humidity may also affect human health and comfort. Initiatives such as the Inuit Mental Health and Wellness map offers an inventory of programs that focus on health and comfort-related issues. Certain population groups are particularly susceptible and coping strategies will need to be developed in northern countries. What can be done to better forecast future heatwaves in order to minimize human discomfort and health problems?

• Safety/Insurance issues in the Arctic

  Due to climate change, the frequency and intensity of weather-related risks and hazards (e.g., storms, iceberg formation, cold spells, etc.) may change.
  Some challenges for safety and the insurance sector in the Arctic are:
  Case study S1 - Future risks for hazards: Can we expect an increased risk from certain weather- and/or climate-related natural disasters in the Arctic that affect everyday operations at sea, transport, tourism, search and rescue, or other activities? Which information could be provided to support adaptation and preparedness, and thus continue safely performing these activities?
  Case study S2 - Heat and rockfalls: An increased risk from rockfalls in mountainous regions has been identified during exceptionally warm periods, for example on Lofoten mountains in northern Norway. Rockfalls are common in areas with mountain permafrost. During exceptionally warm periods, could these events become more common in areas without permafrost? How could this be assessed? 

• Biodiversity and conservation

  Because of climate change, parameters of the atmosphere and the ocean (e.g. temperature, salinity) as well as ice cover are rapidly changing in the Arctic. These changes are happening too fast for wildlife to adapt to the new habitat conditions.
  Here there are some examples:
  Case study B1 - Sea ice and biodiversity: The loss of sea ice, which is rapidly changing both in extent and thickness, is pushing polar bears into communities, making walruses no longer able to haul-out on sea ice, and putting caribou at greater risk of falling through thin ice as they cross between islands (just to give a few examples). How can a better prediction of sea ice extent help identify those habitats that are more at risk (e.g. of changing or disappearing)?
  Case study B2 - Climate variables and marine biodiversity: Marine habitat is also impacted by changes in the temperature of the atmosphere as well as ocean temperature and salinity. How can we forecast changes in temperature and salinity (or other variables) that move beyond a range of tolerance of certain species (e.g. fish or algae), making their typical habitats unsuitable, and affecting migration and habitats shifts? (e.g. autochthonous species disappearing from one area, exotic/invasive species extending their range to the Arctic habitats?) 

• Local infrastructure

  Case study L1: Local infrastructure and rain on snow events: In winter, rain on snow events are increasingly common in Arctic coastal areas and present challenges for local infrastructure and traffic. For example, the roofs of private houses and large public buildings (e.g. schools, kindergartens, sports facilities, factories) that collect snow may become heavy and unstable after rain on snow events. In addition, rain on snowy roads and walkways creates icy and slippery conditions that are challenging for the every days life of local residents and the regional transport of goods. How can winterly temperature and precipitation forecasts be adjusted to suit the needs of local communities and regional transport industry?

The students developed new case studies using weather and climate predictions within the context of APPLICATE as group work. The results of the practical tasks will are presented below and in a dedicated webinar.

• Predicting the 2018 Heatwaves and Forest Fires in Sweden

  Authors: Alena Dekhtyareva, Iris Mužić, Julius Eberhard, Mikhail Latonin, Priyanka, Ross Alter. In the summer of 2018, Sweden experienced a heatwave and series of wildfires caused by a combination of a stable high-pressure system, long-term background warming and a pronounced drought. The event had pronounced negative environmental and societal consequences. Three groups of stakeholders were identified to have been impacted by these events. Residents were affected by increased health risks and evacuations, farmers incurred financial losses and administrations, as well as different national governments, organized aid campaigns and programs. The knowledge necessary for predicting such heatwaves includes quantification of increased risks in the context of the amplified recent warming of the Arctic and production of reliable seasonal weather forecasts. In both aspects, shortcomings have been identified. While uncertainty exists regarding the role of long-term changes in atmospheric circulations in influencing the risk of future heatwaves, seasonal forecasts for the summer of 2018 suffered from inaccurate capturing of the geographical extent of the heatwave and from an underestimation of the diurnal temperature cycle. Data and experience from the 2018 heatwave and fires in Sweden could be used to assess future impacts on society by such events. International cooperation, both politically and scientifically, is expected to increase overall adaptability to more frequent heatwaves and fires in the future. Read the full case study here. 

• Influence of ENSO on the Arctic climate

  Authors: Isabel Ramos and Galina Jonat. One of the most important climatic phenomena on Earth is the El Niño/Southern Oscillation due to generate impacts around the world. Recent studies have found that ENSO - through teleconnections - also has an impact on the Arctic variability modes, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, that again have an impact on the Jet Streams and the Polar Vortex. However, the magnitude of the impact through these teleconnections has not been modelled in a realistic way yet. Read the full case study here. 

• Future hazard risks from Greenland Ice Sheet mass loss

  Authors: Fadzil Nor, Ankur Dixit, Susanne Davidson. Greenland ice sheet mass loss: Potential consequences for mid-latitudes with a focus on the possibility of a tsunami occurrence in Scotland. A tsunami affecting Scotland may appear as a hazard with low likelihood, albeit high impact, if it were to occur today. However, such events have happened in ancient history and their triggering factors may have been linked to climatic changes. In this case study we investigated possible linkages between an increased mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet induced by Northern Hemisphere warming and the resulting glacial isostatic adjustment with its potential to generate seismic activity. Whilst acknowledging that seismicity alone can trigger tsunamis, we focussed predominantly on submarine landslides as main – difficult to gauge – tsunami-inducing events, thereby taking into account accelerated sediment loading and other potential factors. Referring to the well-studied historic Storegga slide and associated tsunami which inundated coastal regions in several countries, we identified a significant proportion of Scotland’s total population and vital economic sectors to be potentially exposed and vulnerable in case of a tsunami occurrence, although a formal vulnerability assessment was not part of the case study. In summary, we found that the complexity and unpredictability of seismic activity and tsunamigenic submarine landslides, together with a fragmentation of scientific evidence over a wide range of disciplines, urgently requires increased cross-disciplinary collaboration and robust climate projections to aid policymakers in assessing a potentially by rapid Arctic climate change altered hazard risk situation. Read the full case study here. 

• Flushed away: Addressing the types and hazards of flash floods in the Arctic

  Authors: Michiel de Bode, Ines Sanchez-Rodriguez, Joseph Martin. Flash floods pose significant risks to the life and property of Northern communities. In the Arctic, they are often caused by the emerging threat of heavy precipitation as well as glacial retreat and ice-jams in rivers. Efforts should be focussed to improve predictive capabilities and communication of flood risks to the public. Further, protection measures can be taken by local governments and citizens to improve the flood-resilience of these communities. Read the full case study here. 

• The 2012 Record Low Sea Ice Minimum and its Effect on Arctic Biodiversity

  Authors: Adrià Blanco, Céline Gieße, Marlen Kolbe, Karla B. Parga Martínez, Kruti Upadhyay, Virryna (Yue) Wu. Rising temperatures due to global warming and Arctic amplification have caused a substantial loss of Arctic sea ice over the past decades. In September 2012, the Arctic sea ice extent reached its up to now minimum of only 3.4*106 km². This massive sea ice loss has been caused by a storm event, bringing heat and moisture from lower latitudes and shearing off a sizeable segment of the already thinned and weakened ice cover. The loss of sea ice has tremendous consequences for Arctic marine mammals, which are actively or passively dependent on the sea ice. Observations of polar bear populations show an overall declining population and changes in habitat locations. The most directly affected group of stakeholders are native Arctic communities, which are increasingly put at risk in a changing Arctic climate and ecosystem. Further groups of stakeholders affected by Arctic climate change and sea ice loss are public and nation-related entities as well as the private sector. More observations and research about ocean circulation, heat transport and atmospheric forcing like storms will allow for more accurate Arctic sea ice predictions. Moreover, a closer collaboration between stakeholders and science departments is necessary to achieve improved adaptation strategies to the changing conditions in the Arctic. Read the full case study here. 

• Hydropower in Iceland and its sensitivity to climate anomalies

  Authors: Alma Karabeg, Kody Kight, Ferran López Martí, Kamilla Oliver, Sara Octenjak. Read the full case study here. 
  

• Andrea Schneider - Association of Polar Early Career Scientists (APECS) / UiT The Arctic University of Norway (Course Administrator), e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
• Natalie Carter - University of Ottawa, Canada
• Luisa Cristini - APPLICATE / Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Germany
• Gerlis Fugmann - Association of Polar Early Career Scientists (APECS)/ Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Germany
• Deniz Vural - Istanbul Technical University Polar Research Center
• Paul Rosenbaum - Uppsala University, Sweden
• Fiona Tummon - Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Switzerland
• Kirstin Werner - International Coordination Office for Polar Prediction (ICO) / Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Germany