The Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. Post-Season Reports will provide analysis and discussion of factors driving sea ice extent and explore the scientific methods for predicting seasonal conditions.
The Sea Ice Prediction Network—Phase 2 (SIPN2) announces a call for contributions for the 2019 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) July report (based on May and June data). Submission deadline: 6:00 p.m. (AKDT) Friday, 12 July 2019 (Firm)
Pan-Arctic and Regional Sea Ice Extent Outlooks and any additional figures and gridded fields will be accepted for the 2019 July Outlook. We particularly encourage submissions for the Alaska region (i.e., Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort seas). For those interested, submissions for Hudson Bay are also accepted. Submissions that include spatial forecast maps are encouraged.
The 2019 SIO will also accept pan-Antarctic sea ice extent of the September monthly mean. Informal sea ice observations and other parameters not included in the regular monthly reports are also invited. All participants whose methods provide information at the local scale to are encouraged to provide full spatial fields via the SIPN Data Portal.
Detailed guidelines for contributions are summarized below:
- Required core information for pan-Arctic Outlook projections using dynamical model, statistical, heuristic, and mixed methods will be collected via an online web form hosted by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). (Note: You will receive confirmation of your submission via email.)
- Contributors have the option of submitting additional Outlook report details, including discussions and details related to uncertainties/probabilities, via the same online web form.
- Contributors also have the option of submitting information for pan-Antarctic and/or Alaska regional or Hudson Bay sea ice extent projections using the same online web form.
- Contributors who wish to share supplemental information such as discussion of uncertainties/probabilities, any relevant figures, images, references, or further information about their methods are invited to upload pdf files (less than 20 MB) at the bottom of the same online web form.
- Submissions of full spatial field sea ice forecasts (full raw fields of sea ice concentration and/or sea ice thickness or post-processed fields) will be collected via the SIPN Data Portal.
Be sure to hit SUBMIT at the bottom of the submission page.
PLEASE NOTE: Submissions to the 2019 June SIO report will NOT be automatically included in the July report. To specify that a submission to the 2019 June SIO report be included in the July report with no changes, select “Please use our submission from the 2019 June report.” in the online form.
Contributions received after the deadline may not be fully incorporated into the Outlook report or discussion.
For more information about the SIO, go to:
Sea Ice Outlook homepage
For questions, contact:
Associated Effort – Sea Ice Drift Forecast Experiment
Contributions are again also invited to the Sea Ice Drift Forecast Experiment (SIDFEx, 2017-2020) - a community effort to collect and analyze Arctic sea-ice drift forecasts at lead times from days to a year. The forecasts target drifting sea-ice buoys and, ultimately, the trans-Arctic MOSAiC drift campaign. SIDFEx is aligned with the SIO such that modelling groups contributing to the Sea Ice Outlook can contribute to SIDFEx relatively easily by computing trajectories for Lagrangian tracers. Results from the last two years have been described briefly in the 2017 and 2018 Sea Ice Outlook Post-Season Reports.
For more information about SIDFEx, go to:
TENTATIVE SCHEDULE FOR 2019 SIO MONTHLY REPORTS
JUNE REPORT: (Based on May data)
- 20 May 2019 (Monday): Call for Contributions for June Report
- 12 June 2019 (Wednesday): Contributions Due for June Report
- 21 June 2019 (Friday): June Report Released
JULY REPORT: (Based on May and June data)
- 28 June 2019 (Friday): Call for Contributions for July Report
- 12 July 2019 (Friday): Contributions Due for July Report
- 23 July 2019 (Tuesday): July Report Released
AUGUST REPORT: (Based on May, June, and July data)
- 29 July 2019 (Monday): Call for Contributions for August Report
- 14 August 2019 (Wednesday): Contributions Due for August Report
- 23 August 2019 (Friday): August Report Released
POST-SEASON INTERIM REPORT:
- Focus on performance of Outlooks as compared to sea ice minimum.
- Developed following the conclusion of the retreat season.
- Published in mid-October 2019.
POST-SEASON FINAL REPORT
- Analysis and discussion of factors driving sea ice extent during the 2019 melt season.
- Initial content developed through December 2019.
- Bulk of content and figures developed after AGU 2019 meetings (mid- to late-January 2020).
- Published late February 2020.