The Sea Ice Prediction Network–Phase 2 (SIPN2) announces the Call for Contributions for the 2020 Sea Ice Outlook June Report (based on May data). The Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. Post-Season Reports will provide analysis and discussion of factors driving sea ice extent and explore the scientific methods for predicting seasonal conditions.
Pan-Arctic and Regional Sea Ice Extent Outlooks and any additional figures and gridded fields will be accepted for the 2020 June Outlook. We particularly encourage submissions for the Alaska region (i.e., Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort seas).
All participants whose methods provide information at the local scale to are encouraged to provide full spatial fields via the SIPN Data Portal. First ice-free dates (IFD) for Hudson Bay will be calculated from the full spatial fields that cover this region. For those interested, submissions the September 2020 80% sea ice concentration contour for Fram Strait are also invited. (Note: Outlooks for sea-ice advance dates will be invited for the August SIO report and submitted via the SIPN Data Portal.)
The 2020 SIO will also accept pan-Antarctic sea ice extent of the September monthly mean. Additionally, we encourage submissions to the associated effort of the Sea Ice Drift Forecast Experiment (SIDFEx).
New in 2020: this year, a separate submission form will be used for each monthly report (June, July, and August). We will provide the link to each submission form in the corresponding call for contributions. Contributors will still have the option to indicate that they will use the same Outlook for multiple months.
Contributors should use NSIDC’s online web form for:
- Required core information for pan-Arctic Outlook projections using dynamical model, statistical, heuristic, and mixed methods.
- Submitting information for pan-Antarctic and/or Alaska regional sea ice extent projections using dynamical model, statistical, heuristic, and mixed methods. (see details below under "Instructions for Submitting an Alaskan Regional Outlook")
- Submitting additional Outlook report details, including discussions and details related to uncertainties/probabilities.
- Sharing supplemental information (as PDFs less than 20 MB), such as discussion of uncertainties/probabilities, any relevant figures, images, references, or further information about their methods.
Be sure to hit SUBMIT at the bottom of the submission page.
An automatically generated reply message, to confirm receipt of your contribution, will be sent to your email.
Contributors should use the SIPN Data Portal for:
- Submissions of full spatial field sea-ice forecasts (full raw fields of sea ice concentration and/or sea ice thickness or post-processed fields).
- First ice-free dates (IFD) for Hudson Bay will be calculated from the full spatial fields that cover this region. IFD defined as the first days that Sea Ice Concentration (SIC) drops below 80% and then below 15%.
- Submission of projections of the September 2020 80% sea ice concentration for Fram Strait.
TENTATIVE SCHEDULE FOR 2020 SIO REPORTS
JUNE REPORT: (Based on May data)
- 22 May 2020 (Friday): Call for Contributions for June Report
- 10 June 2020 (Wednesday): Contributions Due for June Report
- 23 June 2020 (Tuesday): June Report Released
JULY REPORT: (Based on May and June data)
- 29 June 2020 (Monday): Call for Contributions for July Report
- 13 July 2020 (Monday): Contributions Due for July Report
- 24 July 2020 (Friday): July Report Released
AUGUST REPORT: (Based on May, June, and July data)
- 31 July 2020 (Friday): Call for Contributions for August Report
- 12 August 2020 (Wednesday): Contributions Due for August Report
- 26 August 2020 (Wednesday): August Report Released
POST-SEASON INTERIM REPORT:
- Focus on performance of Outlooks as compared to sea ice minimum.
- Developed following the conclusion of the retreat season.
- Published in mid-October 2020.
POST-SEASON FINAL REPORT:
- Analysis and discussion of factors driving sea ice extent during the 2020 melt season.
- Initial content developed through December 2020.
- Bulk of content and figures developed after AGU 2020 meetings (mid- to late-January 2021).
- Published late February 2021.