Submission Deadline: 6:00 p.m. (AKDT) Monday, 12 July 2021 (Firm)
Please see below the season overview, a summary of important changes to the 2021 SIO, and the tentative schedule for 2021.
Please use the new Google-based SIO July Submission Form to submit 2021 July Outlook contributions of pan-Arctic, pan-Antarctic, and Alaskan regional September monthly mean sea-ice extent, related uncertainty/probability estimates, and the optional submissions of sea-ice extent anomaly forecasts.
The SIO provides an open process for those interested in Arctic sea ice to share ideas. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. Post-Season reports focus on performance of the Outlooks, analysis and discussion of factors driving sea ice extent, and scientific methods for predicting seasonal conditions.
We encourage all past contributors to submit Outlooks for 2021 and we also hope to see new participants. Please feel free to distribute this overview to others who might be interested in participating in the SIO.
Overview of the 2021 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) Season
Organizers are accepting outlooks for pan-Arctic, pan-Antarctic, and Alaskan regional September monthly mean sea-ice extent. We particularly encourage submissions for the Alaska region (i.e., Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort seas). Submissions that include spatial forecast maps are particularly encouraged. Estimates of Ice-Free Dates (IFD), as well as any additional figures and gridded fields, will be accepted for the 2021 July Outlook via the SIPN Data Portal.
New to the 2021 SIO:
- New 2021 SIO submission form and process.
- New solicitation of pan-Arctic sea-ice extent anomalies (this is an optional submission).
- New monthly SIO report for September (based on data through end-of-August).
- Solicitation of sea-ice advance dates (IAD) forecast contributions to the SIO August and September monthly reports.
1. New 2021 SIO submission form and process
Use the new Google-based SIO July Submission Form to submit 2021 July Outlook contributions of pan-Arctic, pan-Antarctic, and Alaskan regional September monthly mean sea-ice extent, related uncertainty/probability estimates, and the optional submissions of sea-ice extent anomaly forecasts.
- An alternative submission form is available to contributors who do not have access to the Google-based form. Please contact Betsy Turner-Bogren, ARCUS (betsy(at)arcus.org) to receive the alternative form via email.
- Separate links to the August and September submission form will be provided in each of the subsequent monthly calls for contributions.
- Contributors have the option to indicate they want to use the same Outlook for multiple months.
- Submissions of full spatial field sea-ice forecasts (full raw fields of sea-ice concentration and/or sea-ice thickness or post-processed fields) will be accepted via the SIPN Data Portal. (A password is required. For instructions, see: Detailed Guidelines for Contributions)
2. New solicitation of pan-Arctic sea-ice extent anomalies (this is an optional submission)
The goal of this activity is to eliminate this source of inter-model prediction spread. The pan-Arctic sea-ice extent anomaly is the departure of the contributors' September extent Outlook relative to the contributors' baseline trend (e.g., the trend in historical observations, model hindcasts, etc.). For instructions on calculating an anomaly, see section #2 in the Detailed Guidelines for Contributions.
3. New Monthly SIO Report for September (based on data through end-of-August)
Outlook contributions will be invited to a new SIO monthly report for September (based on May, June, July, and August data). Submissions will follow the same processes described above. This will be an abbreviated report that will include figures and PDFs of contributed outlooks and very limited discussion.
4. Solicitation of Sea-ice Advance Dates (IAD) Forecast Contributions to the SIO August and September Monthly Reports
Forecasts for IAD will be calculated from the full spatial fields of sea-ice concentration that extend through the ice-advance seasons as submitted via the SIPN Data Portal, or contributors can submit the IAD fields directly.