The students developed new case studies using weather and climate predictions within the context of APPLICATE as group work. The results of the practical tasks will are presented below and in a dedicated webinar.
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Predicting the 2018 Heatwaves and Forest Fires in Sweden
Authors: Alena Dekhtyareva, Iris Mužić, Julius Eberhard, Mikhail Latonin, Priyanka, Ross Alter. In the summer of 2018, Sweden experienced a heatwave and series of wildfires caused by a combination of a stable high-pressure system, long-term background warming and a pronounced drought. The event had pronounced negative environmental and societal consequences. Three groups of stakeholders were identified to have been impacted by these events. Residents were affected by increased health risks and evacuations, farmers incurred financial losses and administrations, as well as different national governments, organized aid campaigns and programs. The knowledge necessary for predicting such heatwaves includes quantification of increased risks in the context of the amplified recent warming of the Arctic and production of reliable seasonal weather forecasts. In both aspects, shortcomings have been identified. While uncertainty exists regarding the role of long-term changes in atmospheric circulations in influencing the risk of future heatwaves, seasonal forecasts for the summer of 2018 suffered from inaccurate capturing of the geographical extent of the heatwave and from an underestimation of the diurnal temperature cycle. Data and experience from the 2018 heatwave and fires in Sweden could be used to assess future impacts on society by such events. International cooperation, both politically and scientifically, is expected to increase overall adaptability to more frequent heatwaves and fires in the future. Read the full case study here. -
Influence of ENSO on the Arctic climate
Authors: Isabel Ramos and Galina Jonat. One of the most important climatic phenomena on Earth is the El Niño/Southern Oscillation due to generate impacts around the world. Recent studies have found that ENSO - through teleconnections - also has an impact on the Arctic variability modes, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, that again have an impact on the Jet Streams and the Polar Vortex. However, the magnitude of the impact through these teleconnections has not been modelled in a realistic way yet. Read the full case study here. -
Future hazard risks from Greenland Ice Sheet mass loss
Authors: Fadzil Nor, Ankur Dixit, Susanne Davidson. Greenland ice sheet mass loss: Potential consequences for mid-latitudes with a focus on the possibility of a tsunami occurrence in Scotland. A tsunami affecting Scotland may appear as a hazard with low likelihood, albeit high impact, if it were to occur today. However, such events have happened in ancient history and their triggering factors may have been linked to climatic changes. In this case study we investigated possible linkages between an increased mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet induced by Northern Hemisphere warming and the resulting glacial isostatic adjustment with its potential to generate seismic activity. Whilst acknowledging that seismicity alone can trigger tsunamis, we focussed predominantly on submarine landslides as main – difficult to gauge – tsunami-inducing events, thereby taking into account accelerated sediment loading and other potential factors. Referring to the well-studied historic Storegga slide and associated tsunami which inundated coastal regions in several countries, we identified a significant proportion of Scotland’s total population and vital economic sectors to be potentially exposed and vulnerable in case of a tsunami occurrence, although a formal vulnerability assessment was not part of the case study. In summary, we found that the complexity and unpredictability of seismic activity and tsunamigenic submarine landslides, together with a fragmentation of scientific evidence over a wide range of disciplines, urgently requires increased cross-disciplinary collaboration and robust climate projections to aid policymakers in assessing a potentially by rapid Arctic climate change altered hazard risk situation. Read the full case study here. -
Flushed away: Addressing the types and hazards of flash floods in the Arctic
Authors: Michiel de Bode, Ines Sanchez-Rodriguez, Joseph Martin. Flash floods pose significant risks to the life and property of Northern communities. In the Arctic, they are often caused by the emerging threat of heavy precipitation as well as glacial retreat and ice-jams in rivers. Efforts should be focussed to improve predictive capabilities and communication of flood risks to the public. Further, protection measures can be taken by local governments and citizens to improve the flood-resilience of these communities. Read the full case study here. -
The 2012 Record Low Sea Ice Minimum and its Effect on Arctic Biodiversity
Authors: Adrià Blanco, Céline Gieße, Marlen Kolbe, Karla B. Parga Martínez, Kruti Upadhyay, Virryna (Yue) Wu. Rising temperatures due to global warming and Arctic amplification have caused a substantial loss of Arctic sea ice over the past decades. In September 2012, the Arctic sea ice extent reached its up to now minimum of only 3.4*106 km². This massive sea ice loss has been caused by a storm event, bringing heat and moisture from lower latitudes and shearing off a sizeable segment of the already thinned and weakened ice cover. The loss of sea ice has tremendous consequences for Arctic marine mammals, which are actively or passively dependent on the sea ice. Observations of polar bear populations show an overall declining population and changes in habitat locations. The most directly affected group of stakeholders are native Arctic communities, which are increasingly put at risk in a changing Arctic climate and ecosystem. Further groups of stakeholders affected by Arctic climate change and sea ice loss are public and nation-related entities as well as the private sector. More observations and research about ocean circulation, heat transport and atmospheric forcing like storms will allow for more accurate Arctic sea ice predictions. Moreover, a closer collaboration between stakeholders and science departments is necessary to achieve improved adaptation strategies to the changing conditions in the Arctic. Read the full case study here. -
Hydropower in Iceland and its sensitivity to climate anomalies
Authors: Alma Karabeg, Kody Kight, Ferran López Martí, Kamilla Oliver, Sara Octenjak. Read the full case study here.